Ismail admitted that the dollar had gotten out of hand after the Punjab by-elections on July 17, but he insisted that he still thought the rupee was worth far more than where it was at the moment. He said the rupee value was improving after a reduction in our import bill which was a welcoming sign. “Considering the above, traders should square their positions as they come, although USD/PKR may most likely see some correction in the coming week to the fair value bracket of 222-226/$,” it added.Finance Minister Miftah Ismail earlier in his press conference sounded hopeful believing that pressure on the rupee would be dissipated within two weeks and things would become easy. With this in mind, it would be prudent to come up with a financing plan at the earliest because an external financing will quickly become hard to find,” it said. “This in turn will put severe stress on all emerging market assets and their currencies will lose further value. But the energy crisis in Europe is going to test and stretch the global financial markets.Īs a consequence of the price caps in the European Union, fiscal deficits will be stretched, which will mean floating more bonds at higher rates to attract investors. There is also a high probability that the mandate with the IMF may be increased by about $2.5 billion. Whereas ultra-low interest on FCY accounts is not helping in attracting fresh deposits, according to the Tresmark’s note.Īnalysts do see multiple opportunities for inflows from friendly countries, bilateral institutions, and sovereigns (in the shape of flood aid). The difference between the Interbank and open market is creating an incentive for the foreign currency accounts (FCY) to withdraw US dollars and sell into the open market. Other secondary factors are cash forex requirements for Dubai travellers, declaration of dollars from inbound passengers, severe accessibility issues for encashing in parts of all provinces. The temporary hold on imports has shifted the problem to smuggling from Afghanistan against cash dollar payments, which has increased appetite for dollars in the open market. The interbank market is tracking losses in the open market. It seems that beyond engagement with the IMF, there is no concrete economic plan,” said Tresmark, a professional web-based platform for treasury markets, in a client note, The News reported. “This makes one think whether there even is a strategy in place - because there should be one- a weaker rupee will have crippling effects on inflation, business sentiment, productivity, fiscal space as well as growth. In July, when the rupee plunged from 210 to 230 in a short period of time, it was because of the uncertainty related to the resumption of the IMF programme and dollar liquidity crunch. “The pace of fall in the local currency and shallow intervention worry investors,” the trader added. “Emerging currencies have suffered a lot due to the appreciation of the US dollar against the major currencies following relentless Federal Reserve rate hikes and increased safe-haven demand, but the Pakistani rupee’s sharp fall of more than 4% in the last six trading sessions has fuelled investor uncertainty,” said a foreign exchange trader. KARACHI: Despite IMF inflows, the Pakistani rupee is expected to continue its downward spiral against the dollar in the interbank market next week as lack of strong central bank intervention and no clear strategy to turn around the economy is depressing investors, traders said.Īs per the details, the local unit closed at 219.86 on Monday but lost more ground to settle down at 228.18 on Friday. Lack of strong central bank intervention and no clear strategy to turn around the economy is depressing investors.The local unit closed at 219.86 on Monday but lost more ground to settle down at 228.18 on Friday.Free fall in the rupee's value against the dollar is expected to continue next week, say traders.A currency dealer is calculating $100 notes.
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